February 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Manufacturing PMI® at 58.6%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing at a Faster Rate; Backlog Growing
Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in February, with the overall economy achieving a 21st consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 58.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the January reading of 57.6 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 21st month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020. The New Orders Index registered 61.7 percent, up 3.8 percentage points compared to the January reading of 57.9 percent. The Production Index registered 58.5 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point compared to the January reading of 57.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 75.6 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the January figure of 76.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 65 percent, 8.6 percentage points higher than the January reading of 56.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the January reading of 54.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 66.1 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the January figure of 64.6 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.6 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the January reading of 53.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.1 percent, up 3.4 percentage points compared to the January reading of 53.7 percent. The Imports Index registered 55.4 percent, a 0.3-percentage point increase from the January reading of 55.1 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment. The COVID-19 omicron variant remained an impact in February; however, there were signs of relief, with recovery expected in March. A higher-than-normal quits rate and early retirements continued. Panel sentiment remained strongly optimistic, with 12 positive growth comments for every cautious comment, up from January’s ratio of 7-to-1. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index increasing and remaining in strong growth territory, supported by stronger expansion of new export orders, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at a very low level and (3) Backlog of Orders Index increasing to historically high levels. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) grew during the period, though at a slower rate, with a combined minus-0.9-percentage point change to the Manufacturing PMI®calculation. The Employment Index expanded for a sixth straight month; panelists indicate their ability to hire continues to improve, but to a lesser degree than in January. Challenges with turnover (quits and retirements) and resulting backfilling continue to plague panelists’ efforts to adequately staff their organizations. Production expanded satisfactorily, despite staffing and supplier delivery headwinds. Inputs— expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories, and imports — continued to constrain production expansion. The Supplier Deliveries Index again slowed at a slightly faster rate, while the Inventories and Imports indexes increased, both at slightly faster rates. In February, the Prices Index increased for the 21st consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate.

“All of the six biggest manufacturing industries — Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products, in that order — registered moderate-to-strong growth in February.

“Manufacturing performed well for the 21st straight month, with demand registering month-over-month growth and consumption softening slightly, though less than forecast. The impact of omicron declined in February as swiftly as it appeared in December, leaving March and April’s manufacturing environment favorable, especially with new orders and backlogs registering strong growth,” says Fiore.

The 16 manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in February compared to January is Wood Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Electronic supply chain is still a mess.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • “Strong sales growth as retail continues to return.” [Chemical Products]
  • “Demand for transportation equipment remains strong. Supply of transportation services continues to be a major issue for the supply chain.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • “Strong demand has continued beyond our traditional seasonality curves. Coupled with the continuing difficulties in procurement of ocean freight, operational planning and managing costs are our biggest challenges.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • “We have seen year-over-year revenue growth of about 10 percent due to markets coming back. However, in the automotive area, the microchip shortage is causing slowness in growth.” [Machinery]
  • “Demand for steel products has increased to historic levels, driven by the automotive and energy industries.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
  • “We are expecting a year of strong demand, higher prices and continued supply chain challenges.” [Textile Mills]
  • “Demand continues to be strong, increasing our backlog. Production has been more consistent due to availability of parts, but we are not able to increase builds to cut into the backlog.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
  • “Business conditions are good, demand remains strong, and we continue to be challenged to keep up with demand.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • “Business is still strong. Facing logistics and raw material supply chain issues with some products.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

Manufacturing at a Glance
February 2022

Index Series Index Feb Series Index Jan Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend* (Months)
Manufacturing PMI® 58.6 57.6 +1.0 Growing Faster 21
New Orders 61.7 57.9 +3.8 Growing Faster 21
Production 58.5 57.8 +0.7 Growing Faster 21
Employment 52.9 54.5 -1.6 Growing Slower 6
Supplier Deliveries 66.1 64.6 +1.5 Slowing Faster 72
Inventories 53.6 53.2 +0.4 Growing Faster 7
Customers’ Inventories 31.8 33.0 -1.2 Too Low Faster 65
Prices 75.6 76.1 -0.5 Increasing Slower 21
Backlog of Orders 65.0 56.4 +8.6 Growing Faster 20
New Export Orders 57.1 53.7 +3.4 Growing Faster 20
Imports 55.4 55.1 +0.3 Growing Faster 4
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 21
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 21
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price


Adhesives and Paint (3); Aluminum (21); Aluminum Products (2); Cable Assemblies; Copper (2); Corn; Corrugate; Corrugated Packaging (16); Crude Oil (2); Diesel Fuel (14); Electrical Components (15); Electronic Components (15); Food Oils; Freight (16); Labor — Temporary (10); Lumber (3); Natural Gas (8); Ocean Freight (15); Packaging Supplies (15); Pallets; Paper Products (2); Plastic Resins (2); Polyethylene; Resin Based Products (13); Rubber Based Products (7); Semiconductors (13); Solvents; Soy Based Products (2); Steel* (19); Steel — Stainless (16); Steel Products* (18); Surfactants; and Zinc Compounds (2).

Commodities Down in Price


High Density Polyethylene (HDPE); Polypropylene; Steel* (4); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Hot Rolled (4); and Steel Products* (2).

Commodities in Short Supply


Aluminum (4); Corrugate (2); Electrical Components (17); Electronic Components (15); Food Oils; Labor — Temporary (10); Plastic Resins — Other (12); Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (2); Rubber Compounds; Rubber Based Products; Semiconductors (15); Specialty Chemicals; and Steel.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item

*Indicates both up and down in price.


FEBRUARY 2022 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


MANUFACTURING PMI®

Manufacturing grew in February, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 58.6 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the January reading of 57.6 percent. “The Manufacturing PMI® continued to indicate strong sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in February. All five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® were in growth territory. All of the six biggest manufacturing industries expanded, in the following order: Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The New Orders and Production indexes remained at strong levels. The Supplier Deliveries Index firmed slightly, continuing to reflect suppliers’ difficulties in maintaining delivery rates. All 10 of the subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of ‘too low’ for the Customers’ Inventories Index is considered a positive for future production,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in February for the 21st consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for February (58.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS


Month
Manufacturing PMI®
Feb 2022 58.6
Jan 2022 57.6
Dec 2021 58.8
Nov 2021 60.6
Oct 2021 60.8
Sep 2021 60.5
Month
Manufacturing PMI®
Aug 2021 59.7
Jul 2021 59.9
Jun 2021 60.9
May 2021 61.6
Apr 2021 60.6
Mar 2021 63.7
60.3
63.7
57.6

NEW ORDERS

ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 61.7 percent in February, an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared to the 57.9 percent reported in January. This indicates that new orders grew for the 21st consecutive month. “All six of the largest manufacturing sectors increased new orders at moderate-to-strong levels, in the following order: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Accelerated new orders growth returned to the manufacturing community, as new export orders expansion increased and panelists responded to longer lead times and the potential for additional pricing instability,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 reported growth in new orders in February, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The only industry reporting a decline in new orders in February is Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

New Orders % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 32.5 61.4 6.1 +26.4 61.7
Jan 2022 25.0 60.5 14.5 +10.5 57.9
Dec 2021 24.6 64.6 10.8 +13.8 61.0
Nov 2021 23.4 66.0 10.6 +12.8 61.4

PRODUCTION

The Production Index registered 58.5 percent in February, 0.7 percentage point higher than the January reading of 57.8 percent, indicating growth for the 21st consecutive month. “Of the top six industries, five — Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded. As expected, panelists indicated that omicron-related labor and material shortages contributed to difficulties in executing manufacturing plans in January and February. Improvement in consumption is expected in March as the COVID-19 wave continues to pass,” says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of February — listed in order — are: Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The two industries reporting a decrease in February are Furniture & Related Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. Six industries reported no change in production when comparing February’s levels to January.

Production % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 27.5 61.8 10.7 +16.8 58.5
Jan 2022 21.9 65.7 12.4 +9.5 57.8
Dec 2021 25.6 57.0 17.4 +8.2 59.4
Nov 2021 30.3 57.3 12.4 +17.9 60.2

EMPLOYMENT

ISM®’s Employment Index registered 52.9 percent in February, 1.6 percentage points below the January reading of 54.5 percent. “The index reported a sixth consecutive month of expansion. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, three (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded. Survey panelists’ companies are still struggling to meet labor management plans, as there were signs of slowing progress compared to prior months: A smaller share of comments (4 percent in February, down from 11 percent in January) noted greater hiring ease. An overwhelming majority of panelists again indicate their companies are increasing head counts or attempting to, as 90 percent of Employment Index comments were hiring focused. Among those respondents, 34 percent expressed difficulty in filling positions, up from 31 percent in January. Turnover rates remained elevated (38 percent cited backfills and retirements, a decrease from 44 percent in January), continuing a trend that began in August,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, 10 industries reported employment growth in February, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in employment in February are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products.

Employment % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 21.6 62.4 16.0 +5.6 52.9
Jan 2022 19.2 65.7 15.1 +4.1 54.5
Dec 2021 15.5 72.2 12.3 +3.2 53.9
Nov 2021 20.5 64.6 14.9 +5.6 53.0

SUPPLIER DELIVERIES*

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in February, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 66.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 64.6 percent reported in January. All of the six top manufacturing industries (Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment, in that order) reported slowing deliveries. “Deliveries slowed at a slightly faster rate compared to the previous month. The index continues to reflect suppliers’ difficulties in meeting demand from panelists’ companies. As projected last month, suppliers recovered quickly after worker absenteeism in late December and January, which limited lead time increases in February. However, Capital Expenditures, Production Materials, and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies lead times all achieved record highs,” says Fiore. (For more data on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Fifteen of 18 industries reported slower supplier deliveries in February, in the following order: Paper Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting faster supplier deliveries in February as compared to January is Wood Products.

Supplier Deliveries % Slower % Same % Faster Net Index
Feb 2022 39.0 54.2 6.8 +32.2 66.1
Jan 2022 34.4 60.4 5.2 +29.2 64.6
Dec 2021 34.7 60.5 4.8 +29.9 64.9
Nov 2021 48.2 48.1 3.7 +44.5 72.2

INVENTORIES

The Inventories Index registered 53.6 percent in February, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 53.2 percent reported for January. “Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slightly faster rate compared to January. Manufacturing inventories are again climbing, as continued part shortages are evident in (1) increased receipts of products from suppliers, (2) expansion of work-in-process inventories to manage absorption and (3) some cases of increased finished-goods inventory as supply chain partners underperform. Manufacturing inventories will continue to expand throughout the first half of 2022 as these conditions persist into the summer,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The 12 industries reporting higher inventories in February — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Only Chemical Products reported contracting inventories in February.

Inventories % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 23.4 63.3 13.3 +10.1 53.6
Jan 2022 21.8 62.7 15.5 +6.3 53.2
Dec 2021 21.6 61.7 16.7 +4.9 54.6
Nov 2021 26.2 58.1 15.7 +10.5 56.3

CUSTOMERS’ INVENTORIES*

ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 31.8 percent in February, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 33 percent reported for January, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 65th consecutive month, a positive for future production growth. For 19 straight months, the Customers’ Inventories Index has been at historically low levels,” says Fiore.

No industries reported higher customers’ inventories in February. The 16 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during February — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.

Customers’ Inventories % Reporting % Too High % About Right % Too Low Net Index
Feb 2022 76 8.5 46.7 44.8 -36.3 31.8
Jan 2022 74 8.6 48.9 42.5 -33.9 33.0
Dec 2021 77 8.7 46.1 45.2 -36.5 31.7
Nov 2021 77 5.4 39.3 55.3 -49.9 25.1

PRICES*

The ISM® Prices Index registered 75.6 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to the January reading of 76.1 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 21st consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in February. This is the 18th straight month that the index has been above 60 percent. “Aluminum, corrugate and packaging materials, copper, electrical and electronic components, petroleum products, vegetable oils, lumber and paper products, freight, rubber based products, and stainless steel remain at elevated prices, due to product scarcity and high demand. Price pressures for steel and plastic based products are easing,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In February, 17 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. No industry reported paying decreased prices for raw materials.

Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 56.2 38.8 5.0 +51.2 75.6
Jan 2022 58.7 34.8 6.5 +52.2 76.1
Dec 2021 47.4 41.6 11.0 +36.4 68.2
Nov 2021 67.9 29.0 3.1 +64.8 82.4

BACKLOG OF ORDERS*

ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 65 percent in February, an 8.6-percentage point increase compared to the 56.4 percent reported in January, indicating order backlogs expanded for the 20th straight month. “Backlogs expanded at a faster rate in February, indicating that incoming business remains high, with output still below its maximum potential. This is the largest positive change in the Backlog of Orders Index since an increase of 10.8 percentage points in January 2011. All six big manufacturing sectors reported expanded backlogs, in the following order: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products,” says Fiore.

The 14 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in February, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting lower backlogs in February are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Backlog of Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 92 39.0 52.0 9.0 +30.0 65.0
Jan 2022 93 24.7 63.5 11.8 +12.9 56.4
Dec 2021 90 38.0 49.7 12.3 +25.7 62.8
Nov 2021 92 35.2 53.3 11.5 +23.7 61.9

NEW EXPORT ORDERS*

ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 57.1 percent in February, up 3.4 percentage points compared to the January reading of 53.7 percent. “The New Export Orders Index grew for the 20th consecutive month, at a faster rate in February. Of the six big industry sectors, five (Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Machinery) expanded. Exports of U.S. manufactured products reached their highest level since February 2021, when the index registered 57.2 percent,” says Fiore.

The nine industries reporting growth in new export orders in February — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The only industry reporting a decrease in new export orders in February is Wood Products. Seven industries reported no change in exports in February as compared to January.

New Export Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 74 17.0 80.3 2.7 +14.3 57.1
Jan 2022 73 12.5 82.3 5.2 +7.3 53.7
Dec 2021 75 10.8 85.5 3.7 +7.1 53.6
Nov 2021 76 11.3 85.5 3.2 +8.1 54.0

IMPORTS*

ISM®’s Imports Index registered 55.4 percent in February, an increase of 0.3 percentage point compared to January’s figure of 55.1 percent. “Imports expanded in February for the fourth consecutive month, despite continuing challenges with throughput at U.S. ports of entry. Overland transport challenges and container shortages persist as the Lunar New Year season passes. Indications of improvement in January dissipated in February: Transportation labor issues resurfaced, causing the slowest imports growth since the index last contracted in October 2021. Imports will continue to be challenged through the first half of 2022, due to the pandemic,” says Fiore.

The 10 industries reporting growth in imports in February — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Two industries — Wood Products; and Fabricated Metal Products — reported lower volumes of imports in February. Six industries reported no change in imports in February.

Imports % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2022 83 18.1 74.7 7.2 +10.9 55.4
Jan 2022 84 18.4 73.4 8.2 +10.2 55.1
Dec 2021 83 17.9 71.8 10.3 +7.6 53.8
Nov 2021 87 14.1 77.0 8.9 +5.2 52.6
*The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

BUYING POLICY

Average lead times in February set record highs in all three categories. The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in February was 173 days, an increase of six days compared to January. CapEx lead times have increased in 10 of the last 12 months for a net increase of 28 days since March 2021 (145 days). Average lead time in February for Production Materials increased by two days, to 97 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 50 days, up four days compared to January. (ISM® began collecting this data in 1987.)

Percent Reporting

Capital Expenditures Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Feb 2022 19 5 7 11 29 29 173
Jan 2022 21 4 6 13 29 27 167
Dec 2021 21 3 11 11 29 25 161
Nov 2021 19 4 10 15 27 25 160

Percent Reporting

Production Materials Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Feb 2022 11 21 21 24 15 8 97
Jan 2022 9 23 23 24 13 8 95
Dec 2021 10 21 24 24 15 6 91
Nov 2021 10 21 22 26 13 8 96

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Feb 2022 27 36 18 12 5 2 50
Jan 2022 28 36 18 13 4 1 46
Dec 2021 26 34 21 14 4 1 48
Nov 2021 29 34 21 12 3 1 44

About This Report


DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation


The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest manufacturing subsectors are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Beginning in February 2018 with January 2018 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.